Finance and Economics Discussion Series
نویسندگان
چکیده
Several researchers have recently documented a large reduction in output volatility. In contrast, this paper examines whether output has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find the evidence is somewhat mixed. Output seems to have become more predictable at short horizons, but not necessarily at longer horizons. The reduction in unpredictability is much less than the reduction in volatility. Associated with this, recent forecasts had little predictive power. JEL classification: E37
منابع مشابه
Forecasting Stock Market Using Wavelet Transforms and Neural Networks: An integrated system based on Fuzzy Genetic algorithm (Case study of price index of Tehran Stock Exchange)
The jamor purpose of the present research is to predict the total stock market index of Tehran Stock Exchange, using a combined method of Wavelet transforms, Fuzzy genetics, and neural network in order to predict the active participations of finance market as well as macro decision makers.To do so, first the prediction was made by neural network, then a series of price index was decomposed by w...
متن کاملMachine learning algorithms for time series in financial markets
This research is related to the usefulness of different machine learning methods in forecasting time series on financial markets. The main issue in this field is that economic managers and scientific society are still longing for more accurate forecasting algorithms. Fulfilling this request leads to an increase in forecasting quality and, therefore, more profitability and efficiency. In this pa...
متن کاملCowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University
A discussion is given of the problems involved in the formal modeling of the innovation process. The link between innovation and finance is stressed. The nature of how the circular flow of funds is broken and the role of finance in evaluation and control is discussed.
متن کاملBROOKINGS DISCUSSION PAPERS IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS No. 168 FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION, FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM MALAYSIA
The objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of Malaysia. We argue that the results obtained from cross-country studies are not able to address this issue satisfactorily and highlight the importance of country specific studies. Using time series data from 1960 to 2001, we conduct cointegration and variou...
متن کاملPrinciples of (Behavioral) Economics
There are many great ways to incorporate behavioral economics in a first-year undergraduate economics class—i.e., the course that is typically called “Principles of Economics.” Our preferred approach integrates behavioral economics throughout the course (e.g., see Acemoglu, Laibson, and List 2015). With the integrated approach, behavioral content plays a role in many of the chapters of the prin...
متن کامل